Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-05-04 81975.344325 86542.664413 91109.740980 96015.998548 101134.199366 106312.748206 111945.106530
2025-05-11 74010.120150 80963.040212 88111.832068 96001.276819 104453.687859 113227.314301 123012.554306
2025-05-18 68483.020965 77058.114234 86070.152156 96226.751997 107333.549793 119089.224979 132451.028595
2025-05-25 64110.559133 73875.162308 84328.005650 96315.947832 109649.110525 123987.888991 140538.122156
2025-06-01 61203.472447 71995.435742 83733.143113 97397.585469 112815.613539 129621.078622 149270.084228
2025-06-08 57893.131473 69415.696675 82133.231780 97142.814737 114301.956684 133234.315214 155628.321735
2025-06-15 56045.825784 68353.911786 82116.338279 98556.725764 117568.614153 138768.920412 164098.992694
2025-06-22 54039.548713 66977.945525 81623.991390 99319.710091 120003.883474 143297.489722 171388.718867
2025-06-29 51872.662001 65296.631480 80672.374257 99451.970815 121627.538845 146834.289088 177499.763174
2025-07-06 49861.384977 63701.562528 79732.925513 99515.295621 123100.268890 150144.545006 183315.801930
2025-07-13 48935.274286 63355.301880 80226.953327 101237.500722 126500.930988 155694.531762 191760.906731
2025-07-20 47940.734484 62871.018048 80509.756248 102669.352266 129532.305446 160803.646704 199702.106417
2025-07-27 46577.619967 61901.708756 80187.652063 103368.646804 131705.031059 164940.210834 206569.981650
2025-08-03 44919.767337 60507.300824 79296.174539 103331.631027 132958.491571 167968.190447 212124.594828
2025-08-10 43501.028834 59359.487329 78660.738852 103566.315799 134510.125868 171336.223596 218087.597279
2025-08-17 42102.653781 58185.427171 77945.866803 103659.979591 135855.250743 174434.423204 223720.504959
2025-08-24 41282.019662 57719.890943 78092.394855 104807.689309 138491.244269 179105.289488 231286.617481
2025-08-31 39861.398468 56426.572743 77145.940791 104537.269929 139327.813222 181550.290828 236120.897651
2025-09-07 39308.147199 56247.172875 77604.073676 106037.652655 142382.236453 186738.836727 244361.004869
2025-09-14 38485.010791 55680.428012 77538.020938 106847.202614 144553.112742 190832.773410 251263.255698
2025-09-21 37418.264600 54753.644572 76973.811818 106987.528159 145853.597308 193832.270805 256808.193829
2025-09-28 36372.436083 53822.271709 76373.934171 107054.713695 147040.290790 196678.847831 262164.666474
2025-10-05 36094.014035 53921.889088 77123.830540 108881.738021 150496.045098 202401.492358 271170.414218